Whereas South Africa will in all probability stay the online exporter of maize within the 2024-25 advertising 12 months (which corresponds with the 2023-24 manufacturing season), the coastal areas will import small volumes of yellow maize for animal feed due to value benefit. (File photograph)
Present estimates of South Africa’s maize manufacturing could possibly be additional slashed for the 2023-24 season.
Provided that we’re on the tail finish of the season and can quickly begin planting for the 2024-25 manufacturing season in October, there sometimes are minimal changes on the figures at this stage. However this has not been a typical season.
We struggled with a mid-summer drought in February and March, undermining crop yield potential in numerous areas. We now have seen downward changes within the manufacturing estimates late within the season, which isn’t a typical follow in regular seasons.
Thus, there may be at all times a threat of potential downward revision of the manufacturing figures as extra information concerning the precise harvest delivered to silos turns into out there.
On 28 August, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee lowered the 2023-24 maize manufacturing estimate by 2% from July to 13.06 million tonnes. This present harvest is 21% down from the 2022-23 season.
This sharp decline in harvest prospects signifies the tough impact of the mid-summer drought. Of the present estimate, white maize is about 6.19 million tonnes (down 3% month-on-month), with yellow maize at 6.87 million tonnes (down 2% month-on-month).
This anticipated harvest will meet South Africa’s annual maize consumption of roughly 12 million tonnes, leaving the nation with a large quantity for export markets.
Knowledge from the South African Grains and Oilseed Provide and Demand Estimates Committee means that exports might attain 1.85 million tonnes within the 2024-25 advertising 12 months (this corresponds with the 2023-24 manufacturing season). This will sound vital following a tough season with a considerably poor harvest, however there’s a increase in provides from the carryover shares from the earlier season.
On this export forecast, about 1.2 million tonnes will possible be white maize, with 650,000 tonnes could possibly be yellow maize. Nonetheless, the estimated exports of 1.85 million tonnes are down notably from 3.40 million tonnes within the earlier 2023-24 advertising 12 months (this corresponds with the final 2022-23 manufacturing season).
These exports will primarily be for the Southern Africa area. In actual fact, between Might and mid-August 2024, South Africa had already exported 655,000 tonnes out of the anticipated 1.85 million tonnes. The principal beneficiary is Zimbabwe and a spread of neighbouring African nations.
Additionally price noting is that whereas South Africa will in all probability stay the online exporter of maize within the 2024-25 advertising 12 months (which corresponds with the 2023-24 manufacturing season), the coastal areas will import small volumes of yellow maize for animal feed due to value benefit. We now have lately seen the imports of yellow maize from Argentina by way of Cape City.
South Africa’s 2024-25 maize imports at the moment stand at 134,000 tonnes. The imports for the 12 months (2024-25 advertising 12 months) might rise to 350,000 tonnes. Brazil is one other potential provider of yellow maize to South Africa. Notably, after accounting for these potential imports, South Africa will stay a internet maize exporter.
In essence, we’re on the tail finish of a difficult 2023-24 season. The export forecasts could appear moderately optimistic, given the present unknown dangers. The very best method can be to view the info as tentative till there’s a sense of consolation concerning the precise measurement of the home provides.
That mentioned, we might achieve consolation as a result of there are stable provides for the home shopper. The stress and difficulties stay the regional demand, notably for white maize. Thus, we proceed to see upside dangers to white maize costs.
However these figures are nonetheless tentative. There should still be changes within the coming months, notably on white maize export forecasts. We’re in a difficult season with a variety of unknowns.
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist on the Agricultural Enterprise Chamber of SA and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch College’s division of agricultural economics. His newest ebook is A Nation of Two Agricultures.