South Africa is the one African nation in China’s high 30 agricultural suppliers, ranked 28 in 2023.
Chinese language President Xi Jinping accurately remarked over the weekend that there are “no winners” in tariff wars. The total penalties of the unfolding tariff struggle are but to be clear on a world progress scale, however they’re definitely on the draw back.
However just a few international locations could emerge as winners from a sectoral perspective. Brazil and Argentina are evolving because the main agricultural exporters to China, as US farmers face increased retaliatory tariffs in China.
The Monetary Occasions printed an article this previous weekend that explains what’s unfolding in simply these few months. It states that: “Brazil’s beef gross sales to China climbed a 3rd within the first quarter of 2025, in contrast with a 12 months earlier, whereas Chinese language imports of its poultry elevated 19% year-on-year in March, in keeping with native commerce associations. In the meantime, overseas demand has seen Brazilian soybeans buying and selling at a $1.15 premium to their US counterparts on international markets, having bought at a 25- low cost solely in January.”
This isn’t new. China began shifting to Latin America after the primary commerce friction with the US throughout President Donald Trump’s first time period. I’ve proven this chart a number of instances, precisely illustrating what is going on with China’s agricultural imports.
We expect extra about China in agriculture as a result of China is a dominant participant in international commerce. In 2023, China was a number one agricultural importer, accounting for 11% of worldwide farm imports, totalling greater than $200 billion.
The main suppliers of agricultural merchandise to China in 2023 have been Brazil, the US, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Canada, Vietnam, France, Russia, Argentina, Chile, Ukraine, the Netherlands and Malaysia.
The US place will in all probability decline additional this 12 months.
Reflecting on the present shifts in China’s agricultural imports and the dominance of Latin America has partly motivated us to argue that South Africa also needs to place itself among the many key suppliers of farm merchandise to China.
South Africa stays the one African nation in China’s high 30 agricultural suppliers, ranked 28 in 2023. Nonetheless, South Africa stays a negligible participant within the Chinese language agricultural market, accounting for a mere 0.4% ($979 million) of China’s agricultural imports of $218 billion in 2023.
Given this actuality and China’s efforts to diversify its agricultural suppliers, it’s key that the South African message in engagements with the Chinese language authorities needs to be extra agency and persuasive in selling agricultural exports.
South Africa has an agricultural surplus yearly, exporting about half of its yearly manufacturing. In 2024, South Africa’s agricultural exports amounted to a document $13.7 billion. That is nowhere near the amount of cash China spends yearly importing agricultural merchandise from the world, a staggering $218 billion.
South Africa will not be deeply concerned in China’s agriculture, amongst different issues, due to the upper import tariffs and a few phytosanitary constraints on numerous merchandise.
With China centered on commerce issues these days, South Africa should press them to open up the market and strengthen agricultural commerce with our nation. This needs to be a subject of dialog in engagements with Chinese language authorities.
The Brazilian and Argentinian farmers can’t be the one winners on this difficult time; South Africa’s agriculture should be a part of this international story.
Wandile Sihlobo is chief economist of the Agricultural Enterprise Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz).