Andie Anderson desires to do critical journalism, however as a substitute she’s caught writing how-to columns for a girls’s life-style journal. The 2003 characteristic movie, Find out how to Lose a Man in 10 Days, follows Andie (performed by Kate Hudson) as she makes an attempt to show that even a conventionally engaging straight lady will discover herself single in a sizzling minute if she commits all of the frequent fake pas identified to drive straight males away. The topic of her journalistic experiment is Benjamin Barry (performed by Matthew McConaughey), who coincidentally is working an experiment of his personal. He claims to have a foolproof formulation to make any lady fall in love with him in 10 days flat. The premises of each endeavors rely closely on conventional gender stereotypes, however finally the pair notice their state of affairs is extra nuanced, each when it comes to the circumstances and the people concerned (or no less than as nuanced as a film that got here out in 2003 can muster).
Right here in 2024, Kevin Brown lately famous on a MASN broadcast that Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson had grounded into solely two double performs all season. That felt startlingly low for a roughly 150-game pattern, however I’ll admit to not habitually monitoring the GIDP leaderboard. What’s a “good” variety of GIDP for a full season? Has anybody ever posted an ideal, no-GIDP season? What makes gamers significantly good or dangerous at avoiding GIDP?
These questions have intuitive solutions, however that is FanGraphs; we like to check our assumptions round right here. Andie Anderson thought she knew all the apparent methods to get dumped, however in follow it wasn’t as simple as she thought. It seems two is an effective variety of GIDP. Solely Masyn Winn, with one, has fewer than Henderson this season, who’s tied for second place with Daulton Varsho, Riley Greene, and Jackson Merrill. Going again to 1949 (the earliest season with GIDP knowledge), and omitting 2020, there have been 9 gamers with GIDP-free seasons, most lately TJ Friedl in 2023.
What makes a participant adept at avoiding the dreaded GIDP has an apparent reply: pace. The highest 20 spots on this season’s leaderboard are largely occupied by younger guys with higher percentile dash pace. Whereas the underside of the board is cluttered with previous dudes and slow-moving catchers. It’s a reasonably simple cause-and-effect relationship. Even changing GIDP to a per-opportunity price stat (GIDP/PA with a runner on first with lower than two outs) confirms that hauling booty to first base is one of the best ways to not get doubled up.
So possibly it’s so simple as that. Run gradual and log two outs within the scorebook or run quick and make fewer outs. Commit traditional relationship errors and wind up single, or use your charismatic advertising expertise and fall in love. Issues may need been that easy for Andie and Ben had they not met such fierce opposition in each other. In any other case, her interrupting poker nights and forcing plant-parenthood of a “love fern” would have spawned the breakup Andie sought, whereas his home-cooked candlelight dinners and the magnetism of his motorbike would have birthed the love connection Ben lusted after. However each in films and baseball, opposing forces are all the time at work and a hitter’s aptitude or aversion for double performs isn’t solely measured in dash pace.
Ultimately each Andie and Ben discovered themselves deviating from the usual playbooks for his or her particular person endeavors, and if you happen to look carefully on the prime and backside of the leaderboard, you’ll discover there are just a few deviants there as effectively.
Cal Raleigh has the land pace of a walrus, and but in his 139 alternatives to floor right into a double play this yr, he’s cashed in on solely seven of them. Maybe one of many underrated options of the three-true-outcomes hitter is that it’s laborious to rack up GIDP if you happen to by no means put the ball in play. And in Raleigh’s case when he does put the ball in play, it’s within the air nearly 70% of the time. Simply outdoors the highest 20, Adley Rutschman and Eugenio Suárez match the same mildew. Each give a much less excessive proportion of their plate appearances to walks and strikeouts, however the sum of their line drive and fly ball charges nonetheless tops 65%. This trio desires to keep away from double performs they usually’re keen to sit down by way of a Celine Dion live performance to do it. The most effective instance of a gradual runner who averted double performs might be Matt Carpenter throughout his salsa-making 2018 marketing campaign. His dash pace that yr was 26.5 toes/second, 73.6% of his balls in play have been hit within the air, and he grounded into zero (!) double performs.
In comparison with avoiding double performs, there’s extra selection within the methods gamers discover to accrue GIDP even after they’re not significantly gradual. George Springer’s dash pace is best than 72% of his friends and but, he ranks fifth in GIDP price. The anticipated batting common on the groundballs of his 16 GIDP is .358, which suggests some dangerous luck, although it could be much less misfortune and extra Springer’s aptitude for deceptive an anticipated batting common mannequin. Anticipated batting common components in launch angle, exit velocity, and for groundballs, the hitter’s dash pace. Springer averaged an exit velocity of 96 mph on his double play balls, however relating to grounders, the connection between exit velocity and batting common just isn’t as linear as a mannequin would possibly assume. Just a little further oomph shortens the response time for defenders, nevertheless it additionally shortens the working time for the batter. And although Springer’s dash pace is 28.1 toes per second, his home-to-first time is 4.45 seconds. Different gamers with Springer’s dash pace sometimes want solely 4.34 seconds to get to first. Between how laborious he hits the ball, his unexpectedly gradual tempo up the primary bottom line, and maybe somewhat dangerous luck, Springer winds up on the backend of a double play in 17% of his GIDP alternatives, making him the particular person in a relationship who asks for a soda within the ultimate seconds of a playoff basketball recreation and lets a hairless canine pee on the pool desk.
Luis Arraez is a below-average runner by dash pace, however he’s principally Sonic the Hedgehog in comparison with the gamers he beat out to prime the GIDP price leaderboard. He’s gradual, however he’s not lumbering-catcher gradual. So how’d he earn the highest spot? On this case, his biggest tremendous energy can be his biggest weak point. Consider him because the inverse of Raleigh. If Raleigh avoids GIDP by merely not placing the ball in play, Arraez is a magnet for them as a result of he can’t cease placing the ball in play. Whereas Raleigh is strolling or putting out 40% of the time, Arraez does so solely 8% of the time. He posts a reasonably common groundball price, however when that price is utilized to a bigger amount of balls in play, you get the next probability for GIDP. (Fade in on a scene set in a movie show the place Arraez is upsetting a combat at a screening of Sleepless in Seattle and getting his date punched out.)
Like Arraez, Jose Altuve can be extra possible than most to place the ball in play moderately than strike out or stroll, however to not the identical diploma. His 15% GIDP price stems from placing the ball in play in a rote and predictable vogue. Altuve’s batted ball location chart (see under), he’s one of many extra apparent candidates for a defensive shift amongst right-handed hitters. Positive, groups can’t placed on a full shift anymore, however Altuve nonetheless faces some method of strategic positioning on 38% of his GIDP alternatives, which ranks twelfth amongst certified right-handed hitters. Of the righty hitters who see a shift in such conditions extra typically than Altuve, solely Salvador Perez (shifted in opposition to in 45% of his GIDP alternatives) has the next GIDP price (15.3%), suggesting Altuve is impacted by defensive shading greater than his equally shifted-against friends. Placing extra balls in play and producing batted balls which are simpler to defend makes Altuve the date who makes a photoshopped scrapbook of your make-believe future collectively, utilizing footage acquired out of your mom with out your information.
However the actual Andie Anderson Award winner for grounding into double performs at a powerful price whereas utilizing each attainable tactic out there is Jake Cronenworth. The batted balls initiating his GIDP have been hit at a median exit velocity of 95 mph, they generated an anticipated batting common of .288, they usually have been hit right into a shift roughly 1 / 4 of the time. He places the ball in play barely extra typically than his friends and owns an above-average groundball price. He makes an excessive amount of contact, hitting the ball too laborious and into shaded defenders. Cronenworth entering into the field with the double play so as is Kate Hudson standing on the road, wanting up at Matthew McConaughey on his balcony, having simply left his residence after Ben and Andie’s first encounter, and whispering to herself as she blows him a kiss, “I’m gonna make you want you have been useless.”
Relationships are sophisticated. Whether or not it’s a romantic relationship between two individuals or the connection between a participant’s talents and their outcomes on the sphere. Easy how-to guides are restricted of their purposes, even with one thing as seemingly apparent as grounding right into a bunch of double performs.