NL Wild Card Collection Preview: San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves

With the 2022 change to a 12-team playoff format, the addition of the Wild Card Collection, and the choice to get rid of winner-take-all tiebreaker video games, Main League Baseball thought it had caught a fork in Staff Entropy and executed away with end-of-season scheduling chaos. However with the league’s failure to strategy final week’s scheduled Braves-Mets sequence in Atlanta with the required degree of proactivity within the face of Hurricane Helene, the 2 groups have been compelled to play a doubleheader on Monday to find out the ultimate two NL Wild Card berths. Whereas the Braves squandered leads of 3-0 and 7-6 within the late innings of the opener, the groups in the end cut up the doubleheader; each completed 89-73 and made the reduce, whereas the Diamondbacks, who performed their remaining sport as scheduled on Sunday, missed it as a result of they misplaced their season sequence in opposition to the pair. The Braves needed to fly cross-country on Monday night time with a purpose to make their date with Padres (93-69) in San Diego.

It’s a banged-up Braves staff at that. Not solely are they lacking Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, and Spencer Strider because of season-ending accidents, however they’re now with out Chris Sale. The 35-year-old lefty could properly accumulate the Cy Younger award that has lengthy eluded him, however he hasn’t pitched since September 19. A lot was manufactured from the Braves’ plan to start out him simply as soon as within the remaining week as an alternative of twice, and simply when the baseball world anticipated him to start out the must-win second sport of Monday’s doubleheader, he was dominated out because of again spasms. Supervisor Brian Snitker stated after the win that he doesn’t anticipate Sale to pitch within the Wild Card Collection, and added that that is one thing the pitcher has handled on and off this season. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos instructed reporters previous to Sale’s scratched begin that he wouldn’t be happening the injured checklist.

As for the Padres, after a disappointing 2023 season by which they received simply 82 video games and squandered a franchise-record $255 million payroll and a full season of Juan Soto, they’re again within the postseason for the third time in 5 seasons. It took awhile for the Padres to hit their stride; they have been simply 50-49 on the All-Star break however went a serious league-best 43-20 (.683) thereafter. Not solely did they safe the highest NL Wild Card spot (and thus residence area benefit right here) however they even put a scare into the Dodgers earlier than the latter received the NL West.

To their credit score, the Padres turned issues round whereas Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have been on the injured checklist. The rotation appeared considerably threadbare, however offseason additions Dylan Stop and Michael King rose to the event. Xander Bogaerts overcame a shoulder harm of his personal and finally took over shortstop from the injured Ha-Seong Kim. An outfield that appeared thinner than any within the league obtained stellar contributions from Rookie of the 12 months candidate Jackson Merrill and Comeback Participant of the 12 months candidate Jurickson Profar. Aside from Kim, who’s slated to endure season-ending surgical procedure to restore a small tear in his labrum, San Diego’s roster is in comparatively good well being.

Rotations

With Musgrove and Darvish each pitching properly since their returns, the Padres have one of many higher rotations of any playoff squad, and so they’re very properly arrange for a brief sequence. The way in which supervisor Mike Shildt has laid it out, Darvish is anticipated to pitch out of the bullpen on this spherical.

The centerpiece of the return within the Soto commerce, King spent a full main league season in a rotation for the primary time at age 29, and it was a superb one. He overcame a gradual begin (a 5.00 ERA and 6.30 FIP in April) to complete fourth within the NL in ERA, fifth in strikeouts (201) and strikeout charge, and eighth in FIP. He was notably stingy down the stretch, with a 2.15 ERA and a pair of.69 FIP within the second half. Throughout that late run, he added about one mile an hour to each his four-seamer and sinker, more and more favoring the latter, and labored forward within the depend with higher frequency; he boosted his first-pitch strike charge from 64.5% within the first half to 69.0% within the second, a charge that might have ranked fifth amongst certified starters if he had sustained it for the entire season. As Ben Clemens just lately identified, the enhancements made King’s sinker/changeup mixture notably efficient (he notched 118 of his 201 strikeouts with these two pitches), particularly inside a pitch combine that additionally included a new-for-2024 slider that launched extra lateral variation. The brand new motion profile graphs at Baseball Savant give us a transparent image:

From the All-Star break onward, King generated a whiff charge of 34.5% or larger from his four-seamer, changeup, slider, and sweeper whereas typically catching batters trying on the sinker.

Musgrove, who missed the final two months of 2023 because of shoulder capsule irritation, continued to battle accidents into this season, posting a 5.66 ERA and 5.36 FIP earlier than touchdown on the IL on June 1 because of discomfort brought on by a bone spur and a bone bruise in his proper elbow. After returning on August 12, he regained a little bit of velocity and pitched like an ace, posting a 2.15 ERA and a pair of.59 FIP with a 29.1% strikeout charge in 50 1/3 innings; 5 of his 9 begins have been scoreless. In that span, batters produced only a .224 wOBA in opposition to his four-seamer, .212 in opposition to his cutter, and .186 in opposition to his sweeper.

Acquired from the White Sox in mid-March, Stop made a seamless transition to the NL as a top-of-the-rotation stalwart, inserting fourth within the NL in innings and FIP, and third in strikeout charge and WAR (4.8). He did it whereas relying closely on a four-seamer/slider combo, throwing both one pitch or the opposite over 87% of the time to righties and over 85% of the time to lefties. The heater averages 96.9 mph and is especially efficient in opposition to righties (.342 SLG, 27.2% whiff), however the difference-maker is the slider, which had the second-highest Statcast run worth (19) within the majors behind that of Sale; batters hit simply .159 and slugged .257 whereas whiffing on 44.7% of swings in opposition to it. When Stop wants a 3rd pitch, he spots both a knuckle curve or sweeper, although lefties appear to have the previous’s quantity.

“Disarray” is just too delicate a phrase to explain the Braves’ rotation within the wake of Monday’s motion and the lack of Sale, provided that Max Fried final pitched on Friday and shall be on three days of relaxation when the sequence begins, Charlie Morton pitched on Sunday, and Spencer Schwellenbach and Reynaldo López each pitched on Monday. Through MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, at this writing the three choices Snitker and firm are mulling to start out Recreation 1 every spent much more time at Triple-A Gwinnett than Atlanta: Ian Anderson, who made 10 begins there after getting back from April 2023 Tommy John surgical procedure however hasn’t pitched within the majors since ’22, when issues have been already going downhill; AJ Smith-Shawver, who made 20 begins at Gwinnett however only one for Atlanta; and Bryce Elder, who made 17 begins for Gwinnett and 10 for Atlanta. Fried is the apparent name for Recreation 2, as he’ll have 4 days of relaxation, and López, who pitched one scoreless reduction inning in Monday’s second sport, would have 4 days between begins for Recreation 3.

Elder, a sinker/slider righty who not often exceeds 92 mph, threw 174 2/3 innings with a 3.81 ERA and 4.42 FIP final 12 months, however struggled after the All-Star break, decreasing his inventory within the eyes of the staff. The 25-year-old started this season at Gwinnett, and yo-yoed between the majors and minors all season, coming as much as pitch the again half of doubleheaders or fill in because of accidents however not sustaining sufficient success to stay. The place batters hit simply .210 and slugged .393 in opposition to his slider final season, these numbers rose to .278 and .593 this 12 months; the pitch’s Statcast worth plummeted from seven runs above common to 4 under. He simply doesn’t have a lot in the best way of weapons proper now. Anderson, now 26, helped the Braves win all of it in 2021 — bear in mind his 5 no-hit innings in Recreation 3 of the World Collection in opposition to Houston? — however had a 5.00 ERA and 4.25 FIP in ’22 earlier than his demotion. Starting on June 18, he made 4 lower-level rehab begins within the minors earlier than working his manner as much as Gwinnett, the place he managed a 3.96 ERA and 4.89 FIP throughout 10 begins (52 1/3 innings), putting out 23.2% of opposing batters however strolling 11.8%. In response to Statcast, his four-seamer averaged 92.8 mph, 1.2 mph under his common in 2023, when it was hit laborious, and 1.8 mph under his common in ’22, when the pitch was nonetheless efficient. Batters slugged .578 off the heater this 12 months, however his 33.9% whiff charge on his changeup and 37.5% charge on his slider not less than provide glimmers of hope if the Braves go along with him. Smith-Shawver, a 21-year-old righty who made six appearances final 12 months for the Braves plus one this 12 months, was tagged for a 4.88 ERA and 5.62 FIP at Gwinnett. His four-seamer averaged 95 mph however was hit laborious 49.6% of the time, and whereas his changeup was efficient, his breaking pitches weren’t.

Fried was hit for a 7.71 ERA over his first 4 begins however quickly started placing up zeroes. In truth, he left each his April 29 begin in opposition to the Mariners and Could 11 begin in opposition to the Mets with out permitting a success, and from April 23 onward, he posted a 2.79 ERA and three.15 FIP, although he did miss about three weeks in July and August because of a bout of neuritis in his left forearm. A decrease launch level helped him escape his early rut by getting extra rise and horizontal motion along with his four-seamer. He turned to his sinker extra typically (15.8%, up from final 12 months’s 11.7%) and obtained fewer swinging strikes than up to now, however he did a superb job of suppressing laborious contact. The Padres are notably susceptible in opposition to lefties (extra on that under), so he may give them bother.

López returned to beginning after two years within the bullpen and was a revelation, along with his four-seam fastball and slider each rating excessive on the Statcast worth leaderboards. His slider held hitters to a .171 AVG and .262 SLG whereas netting whiffs on 44.1% of swings. His curve, used predominantly in opposition to lefties, was equally efficient. The Braves went to nice lengths to handle his ramping up from final 12 months’s 66 innings; 11 of his 25 begins have been made on six or extra days of relaxation. He made two journeys to the IL within the second half — one in early August because of forearm tightness and the opposite in September because of shoulder irritation — and threw simply 31 innings over these remaining two months. His effectiveness didn’t diminish, not less than. In his first begin off the IL on Saturday, he threw six innings of two-hit, one-run ball in opposition to the Royals, putting out 9.

Bullpens

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller remade the Padres bullpen earlier than the commerce deadline, including righties Jason Adam and Bryan Hoeing and lefty Tanner Scott. With Adam and Scott sliding into the highest setup roles and Hoeing right into a middle-relief slot, the brand new guys mixed for a 1.76 ERA and 26.7% strikeout charge over a mixed 76 2/3 innings with the Padres, and middlemen Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon pitched properly, too. One have a look at the staff’s pitch-modeling leaderboard makes clear what an improve this was; the brand new guys account for three of San Diego’s high six relievers by Stuff+ (116 or higher). Scott’s four-seamer, Adam’s changeup, and Hoenig’s splitter (to not point out Estrada’s 84-mph split-change) all positioned on the Statcast leaderboards as a few of the most beneficial choices of their form.

The remade bullpen produced a 3.16 ERA and three.20 FIP after the All-Star break, although the massive concern was the late-season struggles of nearer Robert Suarez, who was lit for a 5.24 ERA and 4.46 FIP in August and September whereas putting out simply 17.5% of hitters, down from 26.1% by means of July; he blew three of his final eight save possibilities. Scott, who notched 18 saves with the Marlins and 4 with the Padres, does provide a tried-and-true different in case Shildt wants one. As for Darvish, he’s by no means made a reduction appearances within the majors, however pitched out of the bullpen for Samurai Japan within the 2023 World Baseball Traditional.

The Braves had the NL’s greatest bullpen by FIP (3.41) and second greatest by ERA (3.32), strikeout charge (26.6%), and WAR (6.2), and given the form of their present rotation, they’ll have to depend upon their relievers to have a shot at advancing. Raisel Iglesias, who posted a 1.95 ERA and a pair of.65 FIP, is likely one of the sport’s high closers regardless of blowing the save within the first sport Monday, when he allowed two runs on two hits, together with a homer, in one-third of an inning. This season, batters hit .163 or decrease and slugged .279 or decrease in opposition to all 4 of his choices (four-seamer, sinker, slider, and changeup), with whiff charges of 32.5% or larger in opposition to all however the sinker. He returned to pitch a scoreless ninth inning in Monday’s Recreation 2, notching his thirty fourth save of the season. High setup man Joe Jiménez additionally pitched each video games Monday and was one of many goats within the opener, permitting three runs on three straight hits within the eighth inning with out recording an out, however these three runs have been his first earned runs allowed since August 27. He too bounced again with a scoreless inning within the second sport, and he’s been excellent general (2.62 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 29.6% strikeout charge).

The Braves misplaced setup man A.J. Minter to season-ending hip surgical procedure in August. Pierce Johnson hasn’t been as efficient since entering into the breach, however basically, he’s been simpler in opposition to lefties (holding them to a .267 wOBA) than the unit’s two lefties, Aaron Bummer (.316) and Dylan Lee (.312). Given how gassed Atlanta’s pitching is, anticipate a good bit of ageless lengthy man Jesse Chavez and 28-year-old rookie Daysbel Hernández, whose 98-mph fastball/slider combo helped him strike out 35.1% of hitters in his 18 innings of late-season work.

Offenses

The Padres have been essentially the most contact-oriented staff within the majors this season; their strikeout charge was almost two proportion factors decrease than another staff whereas their stroll charge was the NL’s second lowest. This didn’t inhibit their manufacturing, as they ranked sixth within the NL in scoring and residential runs however third in wRC+. Their lineup doesn’t have a Soto-like centerpiece — hey, just one staff does — however they did have 4 gamers hit not less than 20 homers and submit a wRC+ of 122 or higher: Merrill, Profar, Tatis, and Manny Machado. Tatis (.276/.340/.492, 135 wRC+) hit 21 homers in simply 106 video games and was about as efficient after his September return from a stress response in his proper femur. Profar (.280/.380/.459, 139 wRC+, 24 HR) loved a profession 12 months with the bat after being arguably the worst common participant in baseball final 12 months; his 4.3 WAR represented almost a six-win enchancment. The 21-year-old Merrill (.292/.326/.500, 130 wRC+, 24 HR) made a seamless transition from shortstop to heart area and proved to be the Cardiac Child, hitting six residence runs from the seventh inning or later that both tied the sport or gave the Padres the lead. The 32-year-old Machado (.275/.325/.472, 122 wRC+, 29 HR) spent the primary 4 weeks of the season restricted to DH obligation, and he managed simply an 86 wRC+ in April and Could, however from June 1 onward he hit .294/.343/.536 (142 wRC+).

Talking of before-and-after-injury splits, Bogaerts hit for only a 71 wRC+ earlier than struggling a fracture in his left shoulder whereas diving for a ball in late Could; he batted .292/.333/.429 (115 wRC+) upon his mid-July return and completed with a 95 wRC+. That makes him the one Padres common with a mark under the league-average 100, however his manufacturing takes on further significance given the lack of Kim, whose harm led the Padres to reverse this spring’s center infield switcheroo. It additionally set off a sequence response, shifting Jake Cronenworth again to second base, with Luis Arraez — who simply claimed his third straight batting title through a .313 AVG however a extra modest 109 wRC+ — sharing first base and DH duties with Donovan Solano.

One concern that stands out concerning the Padres is their excessive platoon cut up. Their 20-point hole in wRC+ in opposition to righties (116) and lefties (96) was the biggest in that route of any staff within the majors, although such gaps in both route aren’t totally unusual among the many playoff groups:

The place this actually hurts the Padres is close to their lefty bats: Arraez (84 wRC+), Merrill (82 wRC+), and Cronenworth (57 wRC+) have been all very unhealthy in opposition to same-side pitching, and even when we develop the samples, neither Arraez nor Cronenworth has executed properly in opposition to them over the previous three seasons (94 wRC+ for the previous, 85 wRC+ for the latter). Then again (actually), the righty-swinging Bogaerts’ 84 wRC+ in opposition to lefties was uncharacteristic; he has a 134 wRC+ in opposition to them over the previous three seasons.

One different facet price noting: The Padres have been simply eighth within the NL in stolen bases and success charge (81%), however they do have 5 energetic gamers with between 10 and 16 steals this 12 months — Bogaerts, Machado, Merrill, Profar, and Tatis — none of whom was caught greater than 3 times.

The Braves offense provides a marked distinction to that of the Padres, and never simply because they’re on the different excessive of that platoon spectrum. (They mashed lefties, however the Padres aren’t beginning any, d’oh.) Past their middling no. 8 rank within the NL in per-game scoring and wRC+ was the best way they obtained there: They have been second in residence runs, fourth in strikeout charge, and second-to-last in steals. Eleven completely different Braves hit not less than 10 homers, although Marcell Ozuna (39) and Matt Olson (29) have been the one ones with greater than 20. Ozuna was the centerpiece of the offense, hitting .302/.378/.546 (154 wRC+) whereas beginning at DH in all 162 video games, a efficiency that would earn him down-ballot MVP votes, notably in a 12 months when a DH is prone to win the award.

Accidents contributed to Atlanta’s low offensive rankings; in spite of everything, Acuña alone accounted for extra stolen bases final 12 months than this 12 months’s complete staff (16 of these have been his, pre-injury). Ozzie Albies, who missed two months because of a fractured left wrist, took an enormous step backward, hitting simply .251/.303/.404 for a 91 wRC+ (down from 125) and 9 homers (down from 33). Michael Harris II, who missed two months because of a left hamstring pressure, slipped from a 116 wRC+ to 100 (.266/.306/.424) and from 20 steals to 10, although he’s the one energetic participant on the roster with double-digit swipes.

Not each step again was owed to accidents. Orlando Arcia made his first All-Star staff final 12 months however became a Substitute Stage Killer this season, managing only a 72 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR. Riley wasn’t having his usually potent season earlier than he fractured his proper hand on August 18. Olson, who not solely performed 162 video games for the third straight 12 months however performed each inning at first base, fell from 54 homers, a .604 SLG, and a 161 wRC+ final 12 months to 29 homers, a .457 SLG, and a 117 wRC+; possibly some relaxation would have helped. The left area platoon involving Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall — with a little bit of end-stage Eddie Rosario thrown in — was Substitute Stage Killer territory till Ramón Laureano took over and hit .296/.327/.505 (129 wRC+) with 10 homers in 67 video games.

Laureano and deadline acquisition Jorge Soler, who hit .243/.356/.493 (135 wRC+) with 9 homers after being acquired from the Giants, contributed to a midseason outfield makeover paying homage to 2021 (of which Soler was additionally half). Former Tiger Gio Urshela, who’s now the beginning third baseman, hit a semi-respectable .265/.287/.424 (95 wRC+) whereas changing Riley.

Defenses

The Padres have been the one playoff staff to complete within the purple when it comes to DRS (-3), and so they have been even additional under common in UZR (-8.4) and FRV (-13). To be honest, these numbers are considerably weighed down by since-demoted backup catcher Luis Campusano; alternative Elias Díaz and starter Kyle Higashioka are each far more stable behind the plate. Nonetheless, of their present state the Padres do have points. The return of Tatis from his 10-week absence was offset by the lack of the slick-fielding Kim; Bogaerts’ numbers in his 152-inning pattern at shortstop have been positive, however the staff clearly prefers him at second. The domino impact of getting Arraez taking part in the sphere means having a DH-caliber first baseman. In the meantime, Tatis didn’t have something near the type of season that received him final 12 months’s Platinum Glove, and Profar was an actual legal responsibility in left, however Merrill was distinctive in heart.

The Braves are the higher defensive staff based mostly on the metrics, although solely DRS (41) marks them properly above common; they’re roughly common by UZR (-2.7) and FRV (2). Harris is a standout in heart area, Olson a DRS darling at first base (14 DRS, 2 FRV, 0.4 UZR), and Urshela — lengthy a visually flashy fielder whose metrics haven’t all the time matched up — has executed properly in his 304-inning pattern with the Braves. Soler is a real legal responsibility in proper (-11 DRS, -7 FRV, -3.7 UZR), a reminder of why he was solely a DH with the Giants pre-trade.

Even in opposition to a rested opponent, the Padres would appear like a powerful staff; in spite of everything, Shildt’s membership did tie for the league’s third-best file. With its pitching lined up in opposition to a winded and wounded Atlanta staff, I anticipate San Diego to deal with enterprise right here after which stick round for a superb lengthy whereas this October.