On reflection, in fact he was going to do it. On Thursday, Shohei Ohtani turned the primary participant in historical past to hit 50 residence runs and steal 50 bases in the identical season, and he did it loudly. His 6-for-6, three-homer, two-steal sport could be among the many greatest single-game strains by any participant all 12 months even when it hadn’t concurrently helped him obtain a feat that nobody has ever completed earlier than. Typically you simply must marvel on the greatness.
Ohtani wasn’t presupposed to be at his peak this 12 months. He’s rehabbing from UCL restore surgical procedure and thus not pitching. His two-way prowess has at all times been a part of the Ohtani mystique, and 2024 felt like a warmup for subsequent 12 months, his first totally operational marketing campaign with the Dodgers. However as an alternative, Ohtani reached new heights as a hitter this 12 months. He’s already set profession bests for each counting stat possible. He’d have highs in each fee stat too, if it weren’t for his offensive breakthrough in 2023 (.304/.412/.654 for a 179 wRC+).
Ohtani at all times felt like a menace to hit 50 homers – he hit 46 in 2021 and 44 final 12 months — however 50 steals felt like a pipe dream; he’d swiped solely 86 complete bases in 716 video games earlier than this 12 months, and even with final 12 months’s rule adjustments that elevated stolen base makes an attempt and success charges, he swiped solely 20 luggage in 135 video games.
Early in 2024, that development continued. Throughout his first 20 video games, he stole three bases and hit 4 homers. Nobody questioned whether or not the house runs would come – clearly they’d. He additionally smashed 10 doubles in these video games en path to a 177 wRC+. The ability is obvious each time you watch him play. However steals? Regardless of his blazing pace, they’d by no means actually been a part of his sport, and nothing in regards to the begin of this 12 months indicated a change on that entrance.
Throughout his subsequent 20 video games, he batted a daft .364/.462/.701, socked seven residence runs, and stole six bases. That introduced his season complete to 11 homers and 9 steals in 40 video games, a 162-game tempo of 44 and 36. Then his hits began to go away the yard at a good better fee and his steals stalled a bit. By June 30, Ohtani had blasted 26 homers and stolen 16 luggage in 82 video games, good for a 162-game tempo of 51 and 31. Fifty residence runs was cheap, however 50 steals? It didn’t appear to be within the realm of risk.
One factor I’ve realized within the final half decade, although, is that you simply doubt Ohtani at your personal danger. He beat colossal odds and upset preconceived notions throughout the game when he established himself as a two-way fixture within the majors. Scouts thought he couldn’t hit. Then they thought he couldn’t maintain doing it. They thought he’d put on down. They thought the primary main arm harm would flip him right into a full-time hitter. None of those predictions was appropriate. Why couldn’t he begin stealing bases at will?
That’s precisely what occurred. His 16 steals via June 30 ranked eleventh within the majors, so it’s not as if he was a disappointment on the basepaths, however it was simply one other wonderful factor that Shohei may do when he felt prefer it, nothing greater than that.
Effectively, that’s what we thought anyway. Over his subsequent 12 video games, which took him to the All Star break, he stole seven extra. Then he began to steal in bunches. He swiped three luggage on August 3, two on August 14, and one other two on August 17. He stole 15 bases in August – about as many as he swiped within the first half of the season!
All the sudden, 50/50 was on the menu. And it by no means got here off it, as a result of he saved his foot on the fuel pedal. Ohtani leads baseball in stolen bases within the second half of this season. He’d been flirting with a 50-homer tempo for a lot of the 12 months; the sudden inflow of steals was all he wanted. To grasp how rapidly issues modified for Ohtani, I like this graph:
The diagonal line is the required tempo to get 50 of a given stat in a full season. As you may see, the steals facet of the equation was very a lot unsure till he bought going – and it’s been easy crusing ever since.
Ohtani didn’t precisely coast over the end line, both. He’s been roughly on tempo to hit 50/50 for the previous couple of weeks, even after an oh-fer in a four-game stretch in Atlanta. Once I ran a simulation Thursday morning to try to foretell which day he’d get to 50/50, the most certainly consequence pointed towards the top of this week or the beginning of subsequent week. Then Ohtani produced maybe the best offensive day of all time: 6-for-6 with three homers, two doubles, 10 RBI, and two steals.
That’s 17 complete bases and no outs. Uh yeah, that’s fairly good. Two steals for good measure? How do you even steal two bases in a sport the place you’ve just one single and no walks? How do you do it when half of your plate appearances are residence runs? It’s outrageous. I really like this notice from Opta Stats:
Since RBI turned official in 1920, just one MLB participant has had, over the course of his total profession (identical sport or not),
a sport with 10+ RBI
a sport with 6+ hits
a sport with 5+ XBH
a sport with 3+ HR
a sport with 2+ SBThat one participant is Shohei Ohtani. He did all of it at this time. pic.twitter.com/njXOmwHKnm
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) September 20, 2024
It’s laborious to say way more than that, actually. Ohtani didn’t simply attain the 50-homer, 50-steal mark by grinding out the previous couple of tallies one after the other, inch by painstaking inch. He saved his greatest for final, placing up actually the very best offensive sport of his profession, and maybe the very best sport of anybody’s profession, to set the report.
It was his first multi-homer sport with a steal all 12 months. It was solely the fourth of his profession. And it wasn’t two homers and one steal, like the opposite three had been – it was three homers and two steals. Nobody’s had that type of sport earlier than, by no means thoughts all the opposite wonderful components about it.
What else are you able to say? Ohtani is peerless, fully with out comparability. He may be the best to ever do it. He’s actually probably the most singular. In fact he bought to this seemingly unreachable milestone with a seemingly inconceivable offensive outburst. That’s simply how he’s at all times completed issues.
This sport was so spectacular that I wished extra. I made a decision to ask my Ohtani 50/50 prediction mannequin whether or not he may get to 60/60. I tweaked a number of variables, added to his residence run fee, and eradicated relaxation days. It stated, basically, “lol no.” In a single million simulations, he by no means hit 9 homers and stole 9 bases in the identical nine-game stretch. Even Ohtani may not be up for that one.
However, his probabilities of attending to 55/55 are surprisingly cheap. With none changes to my pre-existing mannequin, I give him an 8% likelihood of hitting quadruple nickels – 55 twice. If I exploit his second-half tempo as a information as an alternative of our projections, it’s extra like 11%. It’s unlikely however doable, which is greater than I can say for the sport we simply witnessed.
However sufficient about math. Sufficient about what Ohtani would possibly do to make his feat much more spectacular. It’s already a staggering achievement, set in a means that nobody else can match. What a participant. What a sport. What a season. When Ohtani places his thoughts to it, something is feasible.