Because the 22 groups that aren’t presently targeted on capturing the 2024 World Collection title gear up for the approaching offseason, many will certainly be keeping track of the variety of high-profile free agent starters set to hit the market this winter with Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty among the many consensus prime arms. It’s a category that’s not totally dissimilar from final winter’s group of prime arms, which was headlined by a quartet of Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Montgomery.
These prime free agent arms garnered a mixed assure of greater than $600MM final winter, and the outcomes had been typically commensurate with that manufacturing. Whereas Montgomery struggled badly with the Diamondbacks, Nola put up a reasonably typical season by his requirements with the Phillies this 12 months (albeit with barely diminished peripherals) and each Snell and Yamamoto fought by means of damage woes to dominate as anticipated when wholesome. That mentioned, a starter who was checked out extra as a mid-rotation sort of arm final winter stunned the baseball world by rising with numbers corresponding to these on the very prime of the category.
That hurler was Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who was typically checked out as a tier beneath the aforementioned group alongside Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito, and Sonny Grey. Despite rumors that Imanaga’s market might prime $100MM when all was mentioned and finished, the southpaw lingered in free company into the brand new 12 months earlier than ultimately signing with Chicago on a deal that fell far beneath expectations. Whereas the deal maxes out at 5 years and $80MM, only a stone’s throw away from MLBTR’s prediction of $85MM over 5 years, the deal got here with a posh construction that solely assured Imanaga $53MM, or roughly two thirds of that $80MM complete determine.
It’s not arduous to see why groups had been seemingly bearish on Imanaga. In any case, the 30-year-old lefty was coming over from Japan’s Nippon Skilled Baseball at an age that’s roughly in keeping with a typical MLB free agent reasonably than the youthful age many NPB gamers akin to Yamamoto and teammate Seiya Suzuki make their option to the majors at. Yamamoto was advertising and marketing his age-25 season final 12 months, whereas Suzuki marketed his age-27 season over the 2021-22 offseason. With a lot of Imanaga’s prime years already behind him, he maintained all the danger of offering a hefty sum to a participant with no MLB expertise with out a lot of the perceived upside that may include signing a participant of their mid-20s.
Even other than Imanaga’s age, it’s additionally price noting that the lefty’s profile as a pitcher drew vital questions. The southpaw doesn’t throw particularly arduous, having averaged simply 91.9mph on his heater this 12 months, and a few scouting reviews (together with one from Brandon Tew of Sports activities Data Options) raised questions on his capacity to handle residence runs on the huge league stage because of his fly ball-oriented profile. Whereas Imanaga’s deep pitch combine and high-end stuff metrics supplied cause for optimism relating to his future within the huge leagues, the lefty nonetheless entered his first MLB season with loads of questions surrounding him.
Fortuitously for each Imanaga and the Cubs, he answered these questions in resounding vogue with a superb rookie marketing campaign. General, the lefty posted a 2.91 ERA (37% higher than league common by ERA+) with a robust 25.1% strikeout charge that was Sixteenth-best amongst certified starters this 12 months. He paired that strikeout stuff with wonderful management, strolling simply 4% of opponents confronted this 12 months. That’s a determine topped by solely George Kirby, Miles Mikolas, and Zach Eflin amongst all huge leaguers this 12 months and leaves him with a unbelievable 21% Okay-BB that leaves him sandwiched between ace righties Zack Wheeler and Dylan Stop on the NL leaderboard.
That being mentioned, not the whole lot about Imanaga’s 2024 efficiency was dominant. His 3.72 FIP is reasonably pedestrian (simply 6% higher than league common by FIP-) and extra superior metrics akin to xERA and SIERA, whereas extra bullish than FIP on his efficiency, nonetheless see him as extra of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than the two.91 determine he really posted this 12 months. The principle offender for that discrepancy between outcomes and metrics is the exact same weak point that drew some skepticism final winter: his proclivity for giving up homers. Imanaga surrendered 27 residence runs this 12 months, tied with Twins righty Bailey Ober for ninth-most amongst all certified starters in 2024.
Whereas that’s definitely not a totally untenable determine, it will definitely be honest to surprise if Imanaga is due for some regression heading into subsequent season. Of the eight pitchers who surrendered extra homers than Imanaga this 12 months, none got here near his sterling ERA with solely Nola (3.57) and Jose Berrios (3.60) posting an determine that was even inside a full run of Imanaga’s 2.91 mark. Between his hefty residence run charge and an above-average 80.2% strand charge this 12 months, it will hardly be a shock if the emergent ace put up numbers nearer to the mid-rotation ceiling he was thought to have this time final 12 months come 2025.
After all, even a step again that aligns Imanaga’s efficiency extra intently together with his superior metrics would go away the Cubs with a superb #2 starter behind ace Justin Steele who they need to haven’t any issues about beginning in a hypothetical playoff sequence. Barring dramatic regression on the a part of Imanaga subsequent 12 months, it appears very possible that the Cubs will assure the lefty the complete $80MM worth of his contract reasonably than threat him opting out following the 2025 marketing campaign, which he would have the ability to do if the Cubs decline to ensure the complete contract.