Miami Dolphins huge receivers Tyreek Hill (10) and Jaylen Waddle (17) are rolling into Los Angeles to trigger issues for the Rams. Obligatory Credit score: Sam Navarro-Imagn Pictures Week 10 within the NFL wraps up on Monday evening with the Rams rolling out the crimson carpet for the Miami Dolphins.
Though the Dolphins are 2-6 with three consecutive losses, Miami is much extra aggressive than the report signifies since beginning quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned from a four-game hiatus on injured reserve with a concussion.
Miami narrowly misplaced twice since Tagovailoa stepped again into the beginning job. The Dolphins dropped a one-point determination to Arizona and had been additionally overwhelmed by Buffalo by a subject objective margin.
As for the Rams (4-4), they’re going to look to maintain their playoff hopes alive by extending their successful streak to 4 video games and maintaining their noses up with the remainder of the pack within the NFC West.
Given each groups’ firepower on offense when wholesome, this matchup appears tailored to provide a high-scoring affair.
–Dolphins’ offense energized with Tagovailoa’s return
The Dolphins scored 27 factors in back-to-back video games with Tagovailoa returning to rescue a bunch placing up lower than two touchdowns per recreation with out him. His presence alone tends to have a relaxing impact on the offense primarily based on his accuracy and talent to place the ball precisely the place he desires it to go.
Tagovailoa accomplished 69.3 p.c of his passes final season and is as much as 72.7 p.c this season.
The Dolphins usually tend to stay on schedule with Tagovailoa, who has the fifth-highest success price amongst quarterbacks with a minimal of 140 performs.
Whenever you’re selecting up the required yardage on early downs, you may have extra flexibility along with your playcalling.
Of their final two video games, the Dolphins transformed 65.2 p.c of their third-down alternatives and 6-for-8 in landing conversions contained in the crimson zone.
Whereas the offense can generally resemble a sluggish grind, the Dolphins’ effectivity below Tagovailoa makes them an actual menace to opposing defenses.
We’re eyeing the over on Tagovailoa completions — set at 21.5 at DraftKings, ESPN Guess and FanDuel — given his high-percentage horizontal route connections with huge receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and the extra menace of operating again De’Von Achane.
Tagovailoa was 25 of 28 (89.3 p.c) at Buffalo final week and 28 of 38 in his first recreation again from IR.
–Move protection a mutual concern
Los Angeles had its share of damage woes, with huge receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combining to overlook seven video games. Each gamers are actually again with the workforce to considerably enhance the Rams offense.
The passing recreation is important for the Rams as a result of they battle to run the ball, rating thirty first in yards per carry (3.8).
Because of this, it is no shock that Los Angeles has the ninth-highest move play price at 58.68 p.c.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford needs to be looking forward to his probability to face this Dolphins protection. In keeping with the FTN Fantasy Protection-adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA) metric, Miami ranks twenty seventh in opposition to the move.
Nonetheless, the Rams’ move protection is just one spot higher.
Professional Soccer Focus provides the same view. It has the Dolphins twenty sixth in move protection whereas grading the Rams because the third worst on this class.
Therefore, we play the factors.
This whole opened at 47.5 and was guess up as excessive as 49.5 earlier than we started to see slightly little bit of buyback. It is now settling at 49 at most sportsbooks. As of Monday morning, 48.5 was nonetheless out there at FanDuel.
In an ideal situation — or near excellent well being for each groups — this quantity would in all probability be nearer to 52.
Don’t move: take the worth and run with it.
Finest guess: over 48.5 factors (-115 at FanDuel)
–Michael Nwaneri, Subject Degree Media